Analyst: Wii bubble is 'deflating', quality is going down

[Zeus]

A 'respected' analyst has warned that the Wii's bubble is deflating and that the PS3 is set to dominate this Christmas. They feel that this will heavily hurt EA who started to invest a lot in Wii development for calendar 2009.

<blockquote>A leading US games industry analyst has claimed that the Nintendo Wii bubble is "deflating" and that Sony's PS3 is set to dominate game hardware sales this Christmas.

Cowen Group analyst Doug Creutz told Gamasutra that he predicts Christmas 2009 is all about PlayStation.

"While we believe the Wii is likely to be a drag on overall software sales through the holiday, the impact should be limited to those publishers which have invested significantly in Wii development, with the biggest negative impact likely to be felt by Electronic Arts, which (unwisely in our view) heavily invested in Wii development for [calendar 2009]," he said</blockquote>

News Source: <a href="http://www.techradar.com/news/gaming/report-nintendo-wii-bubble-is-deflating--653873" target="_blank">TR</a>

[MadonnaProject]

oh, the quality is going down NOW? NOW?

[CharmedonWB]

These analysts don't know their @sshole from their pie hole. These are the same guys that predicted that the PS3 would reign supreme and claimed this gen would be Nintendo's last. The Wii is dominating the PS3 in sales right now. Last week it was 559k to 326k. Why would this domination all of a sudden end just because of the holidays? If anything, it will widen. I will admit that the PS3 is having an amazing run since the slim launch and the $100 price drop but the Wii will continue its dominance this holiday season. Perhaps 2010 or 11 will the the season of the PS3 but definitely not this season.

[Brandogg]

If he did some...analysis, he would see the PS3 is still lagging behind Xbox 360 and isn't even on the Wii's radar screen. Nintendo will sell more copies of NSMB Wii than Sony will sell PS3 systems.

[nambit]

The guy is on crack if he thinks quality is going down. Wii gaming has actually
improved immensely in the 2nd half of 2009 and 2010 has some pretty big releases
enroute. If anything, the quality of games on the wii is improving. If only the
good games weren't drowned out on shelves by all the damned shovelware.

Still, one cannot ignore the PS3 has some great releases coming. In fact, the
blu-ray scene seems to be picking up steam which always helps too.

[EL_CAD]

I was thinking about getting a PS3, but there are so many other games that I want to get that don't require a PS3, that I will most likely wait another month or two.

[Cue]

If he did some...analysis, he would see the PS3 is still lagging behind Xbox 360 and isn't even on the Wii's radar screen. Nintendo will sell more copies of NSMB Wii than Sony will sell PS3 systems.

not trying to be rude here but if you did some...analysis, you would see that no it hasn't been lagging behind, it outsold the 360 according to the recent NPD numbers and this analyst thinks Wii sales are going to drop while PS3 sales will rise. I have no idea what he has based this on, I'm not saying he's right, but you're wrong. 360 is currently lagging behind in the run-up to Christmas and if any console isn't currently on the Wiis radar screen it's the 360.

http://www.neoseeker.com/news/12304-october-2009-npd-number-crunch-wii-uncharted-2-lead-the-way/

[Cue]

The guy is on crack if he thinks quality is going down. Wii gaming has actually
improved immensely in the 2nd half of 2009 and 2010 has some pretty big releases
enroute. If anything, the quality of games on the wii is improving. If only the
good games weren't drowned out on shelves by all the damned shovelware.

Still, one cannot ignore the PS3 has some great releases coming. In fact, the
blu-ray scene seems to be picking up steam which always helps too.

Exactly, and if he wanted to somehow quantify quality surely he would have noticed that the average metacritic score for wii titles have been rising quite fast. Unlike any other console where the average metacritic actually drops during its lifespan.

[etb]

"While we believe the Wii is likely to be a drag on overall software sales through the holiday, the impact should be limited to those publishers which have invested significantly in Wii development, with the biggest negative impact likely to be felt by Electronic Arts, which (unwisely in our view) heavily invested in Wii development for [calendar 2009]," he said

wtf?
even IF the wii sales would drop hard (which i don't really see right now) why would that hurt developers which concentrate on wii games? there are 50 million wii sold world wide .... new games are welcome i guess so why the **** would it hurt ea f.e. if the CONSOLE SALES drop? it has still the biggest install base and fitness games like ea sports active will most likely sell very well this holliday season.

[JonathanD]

If he did some...analysis, he would see the PS3 is still lagging behind Xbox 360 and isn't even on the Wii's radar screen. Nintendo will sell more copies of NSMB Wii than Sony will sell PS3 systems.

Well to be honest it is a pretty good game :)

I still haven't finished it yet but so far I like it and it seems very fun. Amazingly for a 2D side scroller they managed to throw in some innovation in there (not a lot but these days whats left to do ?)

I do not think the quality thing is exclusive to the Wii, this generation if you want to play high quality games all the time you need to buy all three systems. Gone are the days when you could just buy the #1 selling system and get a great game coming out almost every month.

I guess looking at the bright side, I hardly have time to play a lot of games these days so if nothing comes out for a month or two I hardly notice.

On the PC side of things I have been playing DDO online for free and I have to say I like it. No I didn't pirate it :P its free to play :)

[msanchez]

Now I'm not saying the guys is right as I don't have a crystal ball myself... but how funny would it be that after EA shunning the wii at the beginning, only to dedicate a studio to making titles for it when it succeeded, only to have the wii start doing bad as soon as they try to jump on the bandwagon... if this would prove to be true I'm going to be pissing on myself from laughter.

More realistically speaking though, it hasn't shown signs of slowing down much or at all, I personally don't understand it myself since to this day only 2 or 3 wii titles interest me any, but that doesn't change the # does it? Even if the wii by some strange twist of fate did stop selling then, as someone else already said, it still has the biggest install base, so publishers don't necessarily have to share in nintendo's slump.

On thing is almost certain, this will be the ps3's holiday season, but by no means does that mean it will be anywhere near the wii in sales.

[grapeape]

Now I'm not saying the guys is right as I don't have a crystal ball myself... but how funny would it be that after EA shunning the wii at the beginning, only to dedicate a studio to making titles for it when it succeeded, only to have the wii start doing bad as soon as they try to jump on the bandwagon... if this would prove to be true I'm going to be pissing on myself from laughter.

More realistically speaking though, it hasn't shown signs of slowing down much or at all, I personally don't understand it myself since to this day only 2 or 3 wii titles interest me any, but that doesn't change the # does it? Even if the wii by some strange twist of fate did stop selling then, as someone else already said, it still has the biggest install base, so publishers don't necessarily have to share in nintendo's slump.

On thing is almost certain, this will be the ps3's holiday season, but by no means does that mean it will be anywhere near the wii in sales.

Funny you should mention EA's commitment to the Wii....

http://www.edge-online.com/news/ea-montreal-re-focusing-on-hd-quality-products

I dont see it being much of an issue over the holdays though, people seem to still want them or people at least seem to think other people want them. Even if sales stayed flat (which has never happened) over the holidays, sales of the PS3 and 360 would basically have to double just to be even.

[n0rthstar]

Well i just bought one after all this time, im giving my banned 360 away and replacing it with a Wii, and the PS3 doesnt interest me. I'll get another 360 sometime next year and keep it legal but it can wait.

[Cue]

I think the launch of FFXIII on the PS3 before Christmas will really make the PS3 outsell the Wii by a great margin in japan, but I don't know how much sway this would have on global numbers.

360 also had MW2, even though its on the PS3 as well, MS had a recent advertising blitz with it, so I suspect the November sales will be high. Its really anyone's guess this Christmas.

[NSTar]

It will be very interesting to see the outcome of sales this Christmas. Will the price drop of the PS3 convey people to chose it over the Wii?

How will the sales help us quantify and understand the types of people buying it?

Will the sale project the trend from now on? (PS3 overtaking the wii)

What can we say about the casual market? can we find out how many casual gamer convert to PS3?

If the PS3 show a huge trend, the next gen wii will come early (this is what I'm hoping for). Waiting for the wii special processor.

[morcar]

Personally I think this guy is on crack.

He has done no research at all and thats why he has spouted out nothing but total nonsense. Must have been paid by sony to say it.

When you look at the games on the Wii this year they have grown in quality at an alarming rate. Also with titles like Super Mario Galaxy 2, Metroid : Project M and others from third parties coming out all i can only see is the Wii growing even more.

What is also good is that they are aiming the Wii at adults too with blood and gore games like Gladiator (soon out), Mad World, Resident Evil, Silent Hill (Soon out). So even the adults will get use of the Wii as well as the kids.

[EL_CAD]

Last weeks sales had the Wii still selling a lot more units than the 360 and PS3 combined. This week there are a lot of 360 and PS3 bundles so they might catch up a little this week, but neither is going to sell more than the Wii will.

The games I want this month are evenly spread between the Wii, PC, and 360.
The New Mario and Wii Sports Resort on the Wii.
Brutal Legend and L4D2 on the 360.
Torchlight and L4D2 on the PC.
I will be getting AC2 and Dragon Age soon as well but maybe not until January or I may just borrow them from a friend when they are done with them.

[Cue]

Last weeks sales had the Wii still selling a lot more units than the 360 and PS3 combined. This week there are a lot of 360 and PS3 bundles so they might catch up a little this week, but neither is going to sell more than the Wii will.

The games I want this month are evenly spread between the Wii, PC, and 360.
The New Mario and Wii Sports Resort on the Wii.
Brutal Legend and L4D2 on the 360.
Torchlight and L4D2 on the PC.
I will be getting AC2 and Dragon Age soon as well but maybe not until January or I may just borrow them from a friend when they are done with them.

If you got Brutal legend on the PS3 you could have downloaded the DLC free of charge. out of curiosity why are you getting L4D2 on 2 platforms?

[EL_CAD]

If you got Brutal legend on the PS3 you could have downloaded the DLC free of charge. out of curiosity why are you getting L4D2 on 2 platforms?

Still haven't picked up Brutal Legend yet, I'll keep that in mind in case I get a PS3 sooner.

Getting 2 copies of L4D2 to play with my 360 and PC friends. Installing the PC version now. Got it for $30 at Gamestop and I have more friends that will play it on PC. Spent my 360 version money on a mp3 player for me and a game for the kid, so it maybe be a few more days til i get the game.

[NeoNight]

Well if a lot of wii owners are doing what I plan to do, which is sell their wii and purchase a ps3 slim, then I would say sony will be able to get a nice boost in sales over the holidays. Although nintendo would still see an increase in sales, it wouldn't be as much as a year or two ago.

[grapeape]

If you got Brutal legend on the PS3 you could have downloaded the DLC free of charge. out of curiosity why are you getting L4D2 on 2 platforms?

Umm that ended last week...it was only unil the 19th...its $4.00 now same as on live. :(

[Cue]

Umm that ended last week...it was only unil the 19th...its $4.00 now same as on live. :(

sucks, 400 MS points converts to $5 so I guess it's still cheaper on PSN but hardly, would have been better if it remained free, to late now for those who didn't know beforehand.

blame zues, didn't report that it's free so people start downloading. especially since most the news he gets comes from the blog that did give everybody the heads up.

You could have just downloaded it even if you didn't have the game yet, so it goes into your account and download list, free forever :D. Then you just install it whenever/if you get the game.

@EL-CAD
sorry, seems like that wasn't/isn't an option for you anymore. No need to holdout on BL now. Though I'm sure there are a lot of people willing to gameshare that DLC on the PS3 since they probably don't have the game but downloaded it anyway. I would gameshare it but unfortunately it's on my main account and I give that to nobody. from your posts here I'm sure you're very trustworthy so please take no offence by that EL_CAD.

[EL_CAD]

sucks, 400 MS points converts to $5 so I guess it's still cheaper on PSN but hardly, would have been better if it remained free, to late now for those who didn't know beforehand.

blame zues, didn't report that it's free so people start downloading. especially since most the news he gets comes from the blog that did give everybody the heads up.

You could have just downloaded it even if you didn't have the game yet, so it goes into your account and download list, free forever :D. Then you just install it whenever/if you get the game.

@EL-CAD
sorry, seems like that wasn't/isn't an option for you anymore. No need to holdout on BL now. Though I'm sure there are a lot of people willing to gameshare that DLC on the PS3 since they probably don't have the game but downloaded it anyway. I would gameshare it but unfortunately it's on my main account and I give that to nobody. from your posts here I'm sure you're very trustworthy so please take no offence by that EL_CAD.

No offense taken. Thanks, for the heads up anyway. I'll check to see if any one I know got it while it was free, though I don't think any of them got the game.